Onderzoek naar de relatie van eikensterfte met droogte en bodemchemie

In verband met verhevigde eikensterfte is onderzocht of er verband is tussen de eikensterfte en droogte en/of bodemchemie. Hiervoor is op tien locaties in een opstand met veel sterfte en een opstand met weinig sterfte de jaarringbreedte van de laatste 50 jaar vergeleken met weersgegevens van de dichtstbijzijnde weerstations, de hoeveelheid fijne wortels op 0-25 cm en 25-50 cm diepte bepaald en aan de hand van grondmonsters de bodemchemie gekarakteriseerd. Uit dit onderzoek is gebleken dat er een duidelijk verband is tussen de van tijd tot tijd optredende sterke groeivermindering van eiken en droogteperioden. Niet alle sterke groeiverminderingen zijn hiermee te verklaren. Er zijn aanwijzingen dat het aantal vorstdagen in de lente ook een rol speelt. In opstanden met veel sterfte zitten gemiddeld bovenin het bodemprofiel meer wortels en onderin minder dan in opstanden met weinig sterfte. In opstanden met veel sterfte heeft de bodem in de meeste gevallen lagere gehaltes aan uitwisselbaar Ca en/of K en/of Mg (dus een lagere buffercapaciteit). Het gehele proces van primaire oorzaken en secundaire factoren, die verantwoordelijk zijn voor de sterfte, is nog niet helder. Hiervoor is een breder en fundamenteler onderzoek noodzakelijk. Voor het beheer van eikenbossen worden voorlopige adviezen gegeven

Eikensterfte: een serieus en complex probleem

Steeds meer beheerders zien met lede ogen aan hoe de eiken in hun bossen langzaam maar zeker afsterven. Over de precieze oorzaak is nog niet zo heel veel bekend. Wel maakt onderzoek duidelijk dat er meerdere oorzaken zijn die elkaar lijken te versterken. Droogte en aantasting door insecten zijn zeker een deel van het probleem, maar ook de snelle uitspoeling van basische kationen zijn waarschijnlijk een heel belangrijke facto

On the use of human mobility proxy for the modeling of epidemics

Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control policies, but may be hindered by incomplete data in some regions of the world. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxy data or models for individual mobility to describe commuting movements and predict the diffusion of infectious disease. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales obtained from official census surveys, from proxy data for human mobility extracted from mobile phone call records, and from the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on the three countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data well capture the empirical commuting patterns, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from both sources of data - mobile phones and census - are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, however preserving the order of infection of newly infected locations. Match in the epidemic invasion pattern is sensitive to initial conditions: the radiation model shows higher accuracy with respect to mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, while the mobile phone proxy performs better for epidemics seeded in peripheral locations. Results suggest that different proxies can be used to approximate commuting patterns across different resolution scales in spatial epidemic simulations, in light of the desired accuracy in the epidemic outcome under study.Comment: Accepted fro publication in PLOS Computational Biology. Abstract shortened to fit Arxiv limits. 35 pages, 6 figure

Spatio-temporal assessment of beech growth in relation to climate extremes in Slovenia – An integrated approach using remote sensing and tree-ring data

Climate change is predicted to affect tree growth due to increased frequency and intensity of extreme events such as ice storms, droughts and heatwaves. Yet, there is still a lot of uncertainty on how trees respond to an increase in frequency of extreme events. Use of both ground-based wood increment (i.e. ring width) and remotely sensed data (i.e. vegetation indices) can be used to scale-up ground measurements, where there is a link between the two, but this has only been demonstrated in a few studies. We used tree-ring data together with crown features derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to assess the effect of extreme climate events on the growth of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Slovenia. We found evidence that years with climate extremes during the growing season (drought, high temperatures) had a lower ring width index (RWI) but we could not find such evidence for the remotely sensed EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index). However, when assessing specific events where leaf burning or wilting has been reported (e.g. August 2011) we did see large EVI anomalies. This implies that the impact of drought or heatwave events cannot be captured by EVI anomalies until physical damage on the canopy is caused. This also means that upscaling the effect of climate extremes on RWI by using EVI anomalies is not straightforward. An exception is the 2014 ice storm that caused a large decline in both RWI and EVI. Extreme climatic parameters explained just a small part of the variation in both RWI and EVI by, which could indicate an effect of other climate variables (e.g. late frost) or biotic stressors such as insect outbreaks. Furthermore, we found that RWI was lower in the year after a climate extreme occurred in the late summer. Most likely due to the gradual increase in temperature and more frequent drought we found negative trends in RWI and EVI. EVI maps could indicate where beech is sensitive to climate changes and could be used for planning mitigation interventions. Logical next steps should focus on a tree-based understanding of the short -and long-term effects of climate extremes on tree growth and survival, taking into account differential carbon allocation to the crown (EVI) and to wood-based variables. This research highlights the value of an integrated approach for upscaling tree-based knowledge to the forest level

Competition Reduces Response Times in Multiparty Conversation

Natural conversations are characterized by short transition times between turns. This holds in particular for multi-party conversations. The short turn transitions in everyday conversations contrast sharply with the much longer speech onset latencies observed in laboratory studies where speakers respond to spoken utterances. There are many factors that facilitate speech production in conversational compared to laboratory settings. Here we highlight one of them, the impact of competition for turns. In multi-party conversations, speakers often compete for turns. In quantitative corpus analyses of multi-party conversation, the fastest response determines the recorded turn transition time. In contrast, in dyadic conversations such competition for turns is much less likely to arise, and in laboratory experiments with individual participants it does not arise at all. Therefore, all responses tend to be recorded. Thus, competition for turns may reduce the recorded mean turn transition times in multi-party conversations for a simple statistical reason: slow responses are not included in the means. We report two studies illustrating this point. We first report the results of simulations showing how much the response times in a laboratory experiment would be reduced if, for each trial, instead of recording all responses, only the fastest responses of several participants responding independently on the trial were recorded. We then present results from a quantitative corpus analysis comparing turn transition times in dyadic and triadic conversations. There was no significant group size effect in question-response transition times, where the present speaker often selects the next one, thus reducing competition between speakers. But, as predicted, triads showed shorter turn transition times than dyads for the remaining turn transitions, where competition for the floor was more likely to arise. Together, these data show that turn transition times in conversation should be interpreted in the context of group size, turn transition type, and social setting

Evaluación de la actividad forrajera de hormigas cortadoras en un bosque nativo del centro norte de Entre Ríos

El proyecto tuvo como objetivo determinar la especie de mayor importancia por su actividad de corte, en bosques nativos del centro norte de Entre Ríos asociados a suelos alfisoles. Se trabajó en tres establecimientos agropecuarios donde se determinó la presencia predominante de Atta vollenweideri Forel. Los nidos presentaron externamente un montículo de tierra de forma circular con aspecto de cono truncado, en cuya superficie se localizaron las bocas de entrada y los caminos de acarreo. A través de imágenes satelitales se localizaron nidos de Atta con distribución espacial agrupada y la mayor densidad se definió sobre un suelo Ocracualfe vértico predominante en el área en estudio. La biomasa total forrajeada promedio por nido fue de 312.24 kg MS.nido-1.año-1, presentando un comportamiento selectivo sobre especies monocotiledóneas herbáceas graminiformes y ciperáceas, cuando la abundancia relativa fue alta. Se determinó que la nidificación modifica la resistencia mecánica a la penetración, altera negativamente las propiedades químicas y físicas del suelo en los primeros 15 metros desde la base del nido y cambia la vegetación circundante. Atta vollenweideri fue también ubicada en otros sitios de la provincia y además se determinó la presencia de Atta saltensis Forel, en el distrito Chilcas Departamento Victoria

Importance of individual events in temporal networks

Records of time-stamped social interactions between pairs of individuals (e.g., face-to-face conversations, e-mail exchanges, and phone calls) constitute a so-called temporal network. A remarkable difference between temporal networks and conventional static networks is that time-stamped events rather than links are the unit elements generating the collective behavior of nodes. We propose an importance measure for single interaction events. By generalizing the concept of the advance of event proposed by [Kossinets G, Kleinberg J, and Watts D J (2008) Proceeding of the 14th ACM SIGKDD International conference on knowledge discovery and data mining, p 435], we propose that an event is central when it carries new information about others to the two nodes involved in the event. We find that the proposed measure properly quantifies the importance of events in connecting nodes along time-ordered paths. Because of strong heterogeneity in the importance of events present in real data, a small fraction of highly important events is necessary and sufficient to sustain the connectivity of temporal networks. Nevertheless, in contrast to the behavior of scale-free networks against link removal, this property mainly results from bursty activity patterns and not heterogeneous degree distributions.Comment: 36 pages, 13 figures, 2 table

Aboveground forest biomass varies across continents, ecological zones and successional stages: Refined IPCC default values for tropical and subtropical forests

For monitoring and reporting forest carbon stocks and fluxes, many countries in the tropics and subtropics rely on default values of forest aboveground biomass (AGB) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories. Default IPCC forest AGB values originated from 2006, and are relatively crude estimates of average values per continent and ecological zone. The 2006 default values were based on limited plot data available at the time, methods for their derivation were not fully clear, and no distinction between successional stages was made. As part of the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories, we updated the default AGB values for tropical and subtropical forests based on AGB data from >25 000 plots in natural forests and a global AGB map where no plot data were available. We calculated refined AGB default values per continent, ecological zone, and successional stage, and provided a measure of uncertainty. AGB in tropical and subtropical forests varies by an order of magnitude across continents, ecological zones, and successional stage. Our refined default values generally reflect the climatic gradients in the tropics, with more AGB in wetter areas. AGB is generally higher in old-growth than in secondary forests, and higher in older secondary (regrowth >20 years old and degraded/logged forests) than in young secondary forests (20 years old). While refined default values for tropical old-growth forest are largely similar to the previous 2006 default values, the new default values are 4.0-7.7-fold lower for young secondary forests. Thus, the refined values will strongly alter estimated carbon stocks and fluxes, and emphasize the critical importance of old-growth forest conservation. We provide a reproducible approach to facilitate future refinements and encourage targeted efforts to establish permanent plots in areas with data gaps

High aboveground carbon stock of African tropical montane forests

Tropical forests store 40–50 per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon1. However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests2. Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation3, AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests2. Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1–164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network4 and about 70 per cent and 32 per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane2,5,6 and lowland7 forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa8. We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests4 is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to help to guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse9,10 and carbon-rich ecosystems

Behind the confession: Relating false confession, interrogative compliance, personality traits, and psychopathy

The present study further supports the established notion that personality traits contribute to the phenomenon of false confessions and compliance in an interrogative setting. Furthermore, the study provides an investigation into the more recent interest in the potential effect of psychopathic traits in this context. A sample of university students (N = 607) completed questionnaires measuring psychopathic traits, interrogative compliance, and the big five personality factors. Of these, only 4.9% (n=30) claimed to have falsely confessed to an academic or criminal offense, with no participant taking the blame for both types of offense. Across measures the big five personality traits were the strongest predictors of compliance. The five personality traits accounted for 17.9 % of the total variance in compliance, with neuroticism being the strongest predictor, followed by openness and agreeableness. Psychopathy accounted for 3.3% of variance, with the lifestyle facet being the only significant predictor. After controlling for the big five personality factors, psychopathy only accounted for a small percentage of interrogative compliance, indicating that interrogators should take into account a person’s personality traits during the interrogation.N/